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03/12/2009 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kristian Huselius scored the first goal of the game and notched the game-winning goal in the shootout to lift the Columbus Blue Jackets to a 4-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins at Nationwide Arena.
After the initial four shooters failed to find the net, Huselius' wrister went through the five-hole of Marc-Andre Fleury to give the home team a 1-0 edge in the shootout. It all came down to Evgeni Malkin, but he fired wide left to hand the game to the Blue Jackets.
With the win, Columbus snapped Pittsburgh's seven-game winning streak.
"It was a win that felt like a relief. We played so well for a period of time. Once we caught on to what they were doing, we made an adjustment," said Columbus head coach Ken Hitchcock. "From the six minute mark of the first period through the second period we played great. We did everything we needed to do. We did some great things with the puck, then holy smokes."
Jason Williams and Antoine Vermette tallied a goal and an assist apiece for the Blue Jackets, who have won three consecutive contests. Steve Mason made 38 saves to pick up his 28th win on the year. With the win, the 20-year-old broke Marc Denis' club record set back in 2002-03.
Sergei Gonchar, Pascal Dupuis, and Maxime Talbot scored for the Penguins, who lost for the first time since February 22 in Washington. Malkin and Sidney Crosby had two helpers each in defeat. Fleury turned away 25-of-28 shots.
"They played strong defensively. We didn't get a lot of speed in the first two periods," said Crosby. "We played into their hands turning the puck over a lot. And in the third we put some more pressure on them, got some turnovers and some good goals."
The Blue Jackets drew first blood at the 8:42 mark on Huselius' 19th of the year. Fedor Tyutin, who was stationed at center ice, hit Huselius with a pass at the blueline and Huselius finished the play with a shot from the left circle that slid past the pads of Fleury.
Columbus took their 1-0 lead into the second period after both teams fired 10 shots on goal in the frame.
Williams lit the lamp with 3:01 remaining in the second stanza to give the home team a 2-0 advantage. Fleury tried to pass the disc off to a teammate behind the net, but Vermette stole the puck and hit Williams in front of the net. Williams' backhander flew past the stick-side of Fleury.
Vermette's slap shot from the point sailed past the glove of Fleury at the 1:03 mark of the third period to give the home team a 3-0 lead. But Pittsburgh came charging back with three unanswered goals.
Gonchar got the scoring started for Pittsburgh with a slap shot from the right point with 11:27 to go. Just over a minute later, Dupuis lit the lamp off a rebound from a Malkin wrap-around attempt.
With 8:02 remaining, Malkin stole the disc from behind the net and backhanded a pass to an open Talbot, who lit the lamp with a shot from the left circle to knot the game at three.
"We went backwards with the puck twice and nothing good happens when you have a lead and go backwards with the puck," said Hitchcock. "Both (the second and third) goals we went backwards with the puck and then, game on. They started come at us pretty good, in waves."
The game eventually went to overtime, where the Penguins outshot the Blue Jackets 3-0. But Pittsburgh failed to score in the extra session and the tilt went into a shootout.
Game Notes
Pittsburgh went 1-for-4 on the power play, while Columbus couldn't convert on any of their six power-play opportunities...The Penguins had won six of the nine all-time meetings with the Blue Jackets.
<< Okposo's OT goal leads Islanders past Canadiens
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Okposo scored the game-winning goal 26
seconds into overtime as the New York Islanders edged the Montreal Canadiens,
3-2, at the Bell Centre.
With the contest tied at 2-2 at the end of regulation,
<< Bryant, Lakers down Spurs
San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant's three-point dagger with 1:46
to play helped the Los Angeles Lakers fend off the San Antonio Spurs, 102-95,
and clinch the Pacific Division title.
A Kurt Thomas jumper and Tony Parker thr
<< Mariners sign Cordero to minor league contract
Peoria, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners signed relief pitcher Chad
Cordero to a minor league contract on Thursday.
Cordero, who had spent his entire six-year career with the Montreal/Washington
franchise, had surgery on the la
<< Jokinen carries Flames to shootout win over Red Wings
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Olli Jokinen scored twice in regulation and
provided the winner in the shootout, as the Calgary Flames rallied from a
three-goal deficit to defeat the Detroit Red Wings, 6-5, at Joe Louis Arena.
Jamie
Morrison propels Stars over Hurricanes >>
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newcomer Brendan Morrison netted his first goal
in a Stars uniform and it proved to be the game-winner, as Dallas fended off
the Carolina Hurricanes, 3-2, at American Airlines Center.
Mike Ribeiro and Steve
McDonald helps Blues cage the Sharks >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy McDonald posted a goal and one assist as
St. Louis slipped past San Jose, 3-1, at Scottrade Center.
Brad Boyes and Barret Jackman registered the other goals for the Blues, who
have won six of eight.
Avalanche edge Wild in shootout >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wojtek Wolski notched the winner in the shootout
as Colorado nipped Minnesota, 2-1, at Pepsi Center.
Wolski opened the round with a backhander, then Minnesota's Owen Nolan was
denied by the right pad of P
Carroll helps Missouri pull away from Texas Tech >>
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DeMarre Carroll led the way with 19
points and five rebounds, as 14th-ranked Missouri returned some order to
the Big 12 Tournament, blitzing Texas Tech, 81-60, in a quarterfinal matchup
at the
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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