Derksen goes low for lead in Paris

Golf Betting Lines

07/01/2010 - Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Robert-Jan Derksen fired an eight-under 63 on Thursday to take the opening-round lead of the Open de France at Le Golf National.

Defending champion Martin Kaymer, Alejandro Canizares and Frenchman Jean van de Velde, famous for blowing the 1999 British Open, are knotted in second place at five-under 66.

Van de Velde's presence on the leaderboard is something of a shock. The 44- year-old is no longer an active player with any status on the European Tour. He is playing on a sponsor's exemption this week and despite the great start, is still cautious.

"I have no expectations whatsoever, even now. Especially now," said Van de Velde, who is ranked 1,175th in the world. "But we will see -- you never know with a Frenchman."

It's a Dutchman the field will have to worry about.

Derksen began on the 10th tee Thursday and collected his first birdie of the round at the par-three 11th. He parred his next two, then caught fire starting at the par-five 14th.

Derksen knocked his third shot to a foot to set up the easy birdie putt. He played his approach to five feet to set up his second birdie in a row and polished off his third consecutive birdie from four feet at the par-three 16th.

The two-time European Tour winner poured in a 15-footer for birdie at the 18th to make the turn in just 30 strokes.

"It was great, starting out it's never too easy," said Derksen. "I birdied 11 and made a very good par on 13, that was important, and birdied most of the holes coming in. Difficult holes, but played them very well."

Derksen continued his fine form with a birdie at one, which gave him a one- shot lead over the players at five-under.

Derksen closed his round with birdies at six and the nine to move three clear after just one round.

"I hit fairways and hit them very close," said Derksen. "Didn't make any mistakes and played good, gave myself chances and made a few putts.

"I've been playing really good actually. At the start it was very difficult -- I didn't have the confidence and now I do have the confidence. If I can keep this up I can definitely be in contention."

Danny Lee, Scott Strange, Marcel Siem, Robert Rock and Jyoti Randhawa are tied for fifth place at four-under 67.

The tournament got a boost on Thursday just by the fact that two top-10 players in the world teed off.

Lee Westwood, ranked third in the world, had what doctors thought might have been a blood clot. He was cleared and shot a one-under 70, which is good for a share of 30th.

Ian Poulter, who is No. 8, developed an infection after a bug bite, but he posted a one-over 72.

NOTES: Jose Maria Olazabal played for the first time since last October. The two-time Masters champion was battling rheumatic pains and shot an 11-over 82 on Thursday...Kaymer beat Westwood in a playoff last year...Louis Oosthuizen withdrew on Thursday.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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