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03/11/2010 - Sao Paulo, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The IndyCar Series -- with new title sponsor IZOD -- kicks off its 2010 season this weekend in Brazil, marking the first time the series competes in a South American country. With 17 races on the schedule, this year should feature another great tug of war among several drivers for the championship. The fight for the title has come down to the last lap of the season-finale the past four years, so don't be surprised if that's the case again on October 2 at Homestead.
WILL GANASSI'S REIGN CONTINUE?
Dario Franchitti capped off his return to IndyCar in 2009 with his second championship. Franchitti edged 2008 series champion and Target Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon by 11 points.
After winning his first title with Michael Andretti's team in 2007, Franchitti joined Ganassi and moved over to NASCAR Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series competition the following year, but his efforts in stock car racing did not go as well as he expected.
His IndyCar comeback was nothing short of success with five victories for the '09 season.
"I think that the Indy car I jumped in was a good one, and Team Target puts really good cars out and that definitely made my job easier," Franchitti said. "I've been doing it for so long before that as opposed to when I went to stock cars which was learning something completely new. This was going back to learning something that was instinct for me. It was all I'd ever really done, so it was a lot easier, and I love driving those cars."
Franchitti and Dixon made Ganassi the head of the class last year with a combined 10 wins.
Dixon became the winningest driver in the series last August when he collected his 20th career victory at Mid-Ohio. Sam Hornish Jr. held the previous record with 19.
Hornish is the only driver with three series titles, but Franchitti and Dixon have the opportunity to match that record this year. Dixon won his first championship in 2003.
PENSKE POWER
Once again, Team Penske will be Ganassi's biggest threat in IndyCar. Penske will field three cars this season, adding Will Power to its stable of full- time drivers. The team has not been a three-car operation since 1994 when Al Unser Jr., Emerson Fittipaldi and Paul Tracy finished 1-2-3, respectively, in points. All three drivers combined for a record-setting 12 wins that year when IndyCar was sanctioned by CART.
Ryan Briscoe had a sensational season with Penske last year, winning three times and finishing just 12 points behind champion Franchitti. Despite missing the first race of the season due to his federal tax evasion trial, Helio Castroneves won two races, including the Indianapolis 500, and finished fourth in the standings. Power ran a limited schedule for Penske last year. After finishing third on the Toronto street circuit and winning on the Edmonton street/airport course, Power appeared to be one of the hottest drivers in the series until a horrifying wreck in practice at Sonoma, CA curtailed his season.
Penske has high expectations entering the Sao Paulo street circuit. Briscoe, Castroneves and Power have each claimed victories on temporary road courses over the last three seasons.
"It's been a long off-season, and I think we're all ready to get 2010 underway in Sao Paulo," Briscoe said. "Team Penske has worked really hard over the last few months, and we're prepared for what we hope will be a great season. We got off to a strong start in preseason testing, and now it's time to see what we can do when we see the green flag."
Penske recently unveiled the new look of the its cars during last month's open test at Barber Motorsports Park in Birmingham, AL. All three Penske cars this year will feature a sleek black and white color scheme. This will be the first time since 1990 the team will not race its red and white livery.
OTHER COMPETITORS
After a disappointing season last year, Andretti made significant changes to his four-car stable. During the off-season, he took sole ownership of Andretti Green Racing and changed the name to Andretti Autosport.
Andretti also brought on board Tom Anderson as the team's senior vice president of racing operations. Anderson served as managing director of Chip Ganassi Racing from 1990-2000 and helped lead Ganassi to four consecutive CART titles from 1996-99.
After her three-race stint in NASCAR's second-tier series in February, Danica Patrick returns for another full season in IndyCar. Patrick recorded 10 top-10 finishes, including a third-place run in the Indy 500, en route to her career- best finish of fifth in points last year. Andretti had served as her race strategist, but Anderson moves into the role this season.
Patrick is expected to compete in 10 more Nationwide races this year, with her next event scheduled the last weekend in June at New Hampshire.
This year, Ryan Hunter-Reay joins Tony Kanaan, Marco Andretti and Patrick at Andretti. Hunter-Reay currently is slated for a limited number of races, but Andretti is working on a full-time ride for him.
Kanaan, the 2004 series champion, is looking to rebound after his first winless season last year. He started the season with top-five finishes in the first three races but faltered from there. Kanaan hopes his winning ways return when he races in front of his home crowd this week.
"As a Brazilian getting ready to open the season in Brazil, it is hard to explain the excitement and the pressure that I'm feeling," Kanaan said.
Marco Andretti is a long-shot for the title, but could turn in some top-notch performances during the year.
Many seats were swapped during the off-season. Justin Wilson has found a new home with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Last year, he gave Dale Coyne Racing it first win in 25 years of IndyCar competition. Milka Duno takes over Wilson's ride at Coyne, while Hideki Mutoh has left Andretti's organization and joined Newman/Haas/Lanigan Racing. E.J. Viso is on board with KV Racing Technology after a two-year stint with HVM Racing.
NEWCOMERS
Takuma Sato, Mario Romancini, Ana Beatriz and Simona de Silvestro will make up this year's rookie class.
Sato, who competed in Formula One from 2002-08, makes his IndyCar debut in Brazil, driving for KVRT. Romancini landed a ride with Conquest Racing after graduating from the Firestone Indy Lights Series in '09.
The series will have four female competitors this year, with Beatriz from Brazil in a Dreyer & Reinbold car and de Silvestro from Switzerland driving for HVM.
INDYCAR'S NEW TOP BOSS
Randy Bernard, a longtime top executive at Professional Bull Riders, Inc., recently was named as the new chief executive officer of the Indy Racing League, which is the sanctioning body of the series.
Bernard headed PBR for the last 15 years. Under his leadership, attendance for stand-alone rodeo bull-riding events increased 12 percent and ratings with television partner VERSUS rose nearly 30 percent last year.
VERSUS will televise 12 IndyCar races this year.
"I truly believe I can make a difference with the Indy Racing League, and I see tremendous potential," Bernard said.
Bernard began his role with the IRL on March 1. His appointment came eight months after Tony George resigned as CEO of the governing body. George founded the IRL in 1996.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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