Quinn diplomatic about chance at earning No. 1 QB role

Football Betting Lines

03/16/2010 - Englewood, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brady Quinn officially became a member of the Denver Broncos on Monday after passing his physical and was immediately inundated with questions if he'll go into training camp trying to wrestle the starting quarterback job away from Kyle Orton.

"I think every quarterback on our roster wants to play," Quinn said during a teleconference Monday. "Believe me, whether it's Tom [Brandstater], Kyle, or myself, we're all quarterbacks. Believe me, we're going to be team players first, but we all want to be out there playing on the field. Coach [Josh] McDaniels makes that decision. It's not up to us."

Quinn was traded over the weekend from Cleveland in a deal that netted the Browns fullback Peyton Hillis, a 2011 sixth-round draft pick and a conditional 2012 draft pick.

The 25-year-old Quinn, a former Notre Dame star, played in 10 games for the Browns last season throwing for 1,339 yards with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. He played in just 14 games over three seasons in Cleveland after being a first-round pick by the Browns in 2007.

"I don't want to debate whether I got a fair shot, that's all behind me," Quinn said. "It's a great opportunity here in Denver. That's what I'm focused on, that's what I'm excited about. You can't change the past three years."

Asked whether he's been told by McDaniels if he'll actually receive a chance at the starting job, Quinn remained evasive.

"Those conversations are private at this point, but I think all of us quarterbacks are going to be working our best to make each other better," he said. "I think that's going to make our team better in the long run."

McDaniels also hasn't commented publicly since the trade, creating more speculation that the Broncos will have a quarterback battle in training camp for the top job.

Orton, who was traded from Chicago for Jay Cutler prior to last season, played in all 16 games for Denver last season and threw for a career-best 3,802 yards with 21 touchdowns and was picked off 12 times.

"From watching him, you can see he's an accurate, smart player," Quinn said of Orton. "He's got a lot of talent. He's done a great job of continuing to get better."

Denver reduced its QB roster on Monday too, releasing Chris Simms.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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